SELUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth pattern and to explore its potential environmental impacts under different eco-environment protection levels in Shenyang city. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data extracted from the time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was projected out to 2030 assuming three different development scenarios; (1) current trend development (Scenario Ⅰ), (2) environmental protection development (Scenario Ⅱ), and (3) ecologically sustainable development (Scenario Ⅲ). Scenario analysis showed that urban expansion would be accelerated under all the scenarios with significant differences in development pattern and sustainability after 2016. The urban development under Scenario Ⅰ would lead to substantial loss of land resource than the other two with higher levels of growth constraints, and urban landscape pattern would be increasingly complex. In contrast, the urban growth under Scenario Ⅱ and Ⅲ cpnsumed less land resource and show relatively compact urban development pattern during the prediction period. This study suggested that it was crucial to take stringent urban planning and management measures to control future urban growth and protect primary farmland and support system of urban ecology in Shenyang. And SLEUTH model is a useful planning tool to guide sustainable utilization of urban land resources.
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