Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

doi:10.1007/s11769-024-1439-4

	Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model
	Hou, Xiyong1,2,3 ; Song, Baiyuan 4; Zhang, Xueying 1,2,3; Wang, Xiaoli1,2,3 ; Li, Dong 1,2,3
发表期刊	CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE
ISSN	1002-0063
	2024-08-01
卷号	34 期号:4 页码:579-598
关键词	land use and land cover change (LUCC) multi-scenario simulation system dynamic-future land use simulation (SD-FLUS) model SSP-RCP scenarios model coupling China's coastal zone
DOI	10.1007/s11769-024-1439-4
通讯作者	Hou, Xiyong([email protected])
英文摘要	Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources. Thus, conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones. System dynamic (SD)-future land use simulation (FLUS) model, a coupled simulation model, was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone. This model encompasses five scenarios, namely, SSP1-RCP2.6 (A), SSP2-RCP4.5 (B), SSP3-RCP4.5 (C), SSP4-RCP4.5 (D), and SSP5-RCP8.5 (E). The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100. Subsequently, the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term (2035), medium term (2050), and long term (2100). Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000-2020. Among these changes, the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease. By 2100, land use predictions exhibit high accuracy, and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios. In summary, the expansion of production, living, and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent. Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence, benefiting ecological land protection. Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands. Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production, while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage. Lastly, in Scenario E, the conflict between humans and land intensifies. This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development, utilization, and management of coastal areas in China. The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed, long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
资助机构	Auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
关键词[WOS]	LAND-USE CHANGE ; SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS ; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ; PATTERNS
研究领域[WOS]	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001272034100002
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/35715
专题	中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室_海岸带信息集成与战略规划研究中心
通讯作者	Hou, Xiyong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China 2.Shandong Key Lab Coastal Environm Proc, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, CAS Key Lab Coastal Environm Proc & Ecol Remediat, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China 4.Shanghai Fuxiong Environm Technol Corp, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hou, Xiyong,Song, Baiyuan,Zhang, Xueying,et al. Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model[J]. CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,2024,34(4):579-598.
APA	Hou, Xiyong,Song, Baiyuan,Zhang, Xueying,Wang, Xiaoli,&Li, Dong.(2024).Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model.CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE,34(4),579-598.
MLA	Hou, Xiyong,et al."Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model".CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE 34.4(2024):579-598.